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Dear Mayor Adams

Feb 7, 2023

I am one of the last lonely bulls on NYC office. (Almost) everyone else thinks I don’t have a clue or that I have just lost my marbles. In addition, I am proud that New York always finds a way to not only survive but to thrive and reinvent itself for greater success, now for close to 500 years. Finally, I love New York – just like you do. All of this, I believe, entitles me to suggest to you that allowing government employees to work from home would be a mistake.

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Predictions (and Recommendations) for 2023

Jan 23, 2023

We all know what clickbait is, and it usually (almost always) relies on a prediction of a dramatic calamity or, the opposite, a dramatic updraft of wonderfulness. In financial markets, the goal is to exacerbate fear until people get bored with that, and then switch to greed (when the bottom is reached), and then go the other way. Indeed, how many articles are titled with words like ‘record,’ ‘largest,’ ‘highest,’ ‘lowest,’ ‘biggest,’ etc? I am going to do the opposite and, as always, say what I think is accurate rather than entice with dramatic predictions, and in a nutshell, my prediction is that for real estate in general:

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A Suggestion Regarding Interest Rates & Inflation

Nov 30, 2022

To state something up front, I am NOT predicting interest rates or inflation here. I like to think I am pretty smart – but only smart enough to know I have no more insight into that than anyone else. I mean, even that genius guy Nicholas Taleb got his head handed to him when he predicted that interest rates were going to rise in 2010, and boy did he get that wrong. My thinking here is, therefore, not a prediction, but instead a suggestion of how to handle the current situation if you are in the real estate industry

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Some Inspiration

Nov 22, 2022

Things are getting difficult as we all know. In a big picture sense this is brought on by the conversion of the 20-ish year time period of falling interest rates to a period of rising interest rates. Instead of it being easy to basically create found money with cap-rate-compression, we now find it the other way around. It is hard going and likely will get harder. These are trying times. Some will succumb and others will find a way to turn difficult times to their advantage.

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A Faux Liquidity Crisis What To Do Now

Nov 14, 2022

It seems that there is no money around, which means there must be a liquidity crisis – right? However, there are actually many zillions of dollars in sitting on the sidelines, which means there is no liquidity crisis after all. The reality is that there is plenty of money, but the parties with the money are fearful of putting it out into the choppy markets. I call the current situation: A Faux Liquidity Crisis

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Distressed Real Estate and Fulcrum Capital

Oct 18, 2022

Let me get right to it. There is going to be distressed real estate – I mean it is already here. Here is the background and some thoughts about what to do: First – some history – during the Global Financial Crisis, many thought there would be tons of real estate distress. I recall meetings and seminars planning for an enormous wave of distressed real estate. However, the Fed and other governments printed a lot more money, which lowered interest rates. This permitted most of the cans to be kicked down the road. There was some distress for sure, but not nearly the expected level. Second – came COVID – and there was again a major expectation of distressed real estate. However – other than retail, hotels, and a few other places – the crash and distress were a flash that lasted a little over 60 days, and the dip quickly disappeared to be replaced by a boom. This was again due to interest rates continuing to fall – plus the government continuing to print dramatically more money. However, this time it is quite different.

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A Non-Obvious and Undiscovered Opportunity in Real Estate Tech

Sep 14, 2022

I hear every day – with the drumbeat growing louder – how RE tech companies are struggling – and severely so. The money spigot where rapidly propagating unicorns – indirectly birthed by the governmental printing press, low-interest rates, and intrepid VC investors – roamed the forests has been turned off. And instead of a plethora of capital, there is a paucity.

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Now is the Exact Wrong Moment to Press Pause on Deals

Aug 2, 2022

All over the markets, I am hearing – and seeing – purchasers, investors, lenders, and other parties worried about doing deals in ‘this uncertain market.’ Some are putting a pause on their activities. I have some thoughts about that as follows:

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Real estate
Peter Drucker
Michael Porter
Power Niche
Creating Value
Capital Providers
Five Forces
Peter Thiel
Seth Godin
Uniqueness Challenge
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