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What if Inflation Goes Crazy?

Apr 21, 2021

Right now, interest rates – and inflation – have been tame for so long that I wonder if we are not really considering a possible imminent outcome, which is that due to all the government spending, inflation goes kind of crazy to the upside. If so, have you considered what would happen to your investments in real estate? Would it hurt your existing deals by reducing the value of what you own? Would it cause defaults on indebtedness? Would your borrowers not be able to make their payments? Would your tenants not be able to pay their rent? Are there CPI hurdles in the documentation that would harm your investments? Would other negative outcomes ensue? To be clear, I am NOT predicting that that will happen. Trying to think ahead, I know I don’t know whether there will be inflation coming, but I am wondering if maybe we are just too used to ridiculously low-interest rates. I mean, the ten-year T-Bill getting near 2% “feels” kind of high, doesn’t it?

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Seinfeld, the Real Estate Philosopher, and NYC, Oh My

Mar 14, 2021

Alas, I am not as famous as Seinfeld (at least not yet), but we said the same things about NYC only a few months ago, and it is starting to look like we have a solid point. To start out by being just a bit of an apologetic humbug, I will note that I have been writing non-stop about the strength and power of NYC as the place to invest in – and lend on – real estate...

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Predictions and Trends for 2021

Jan 23, 2021

Hello, real estate friends. Welcome to 2021. I am guessing you might feel a sense of relief that 2020 is over with. COVID is still circulating and as awful as ever – and actually worse than ever - but at the same time, 2021 looms up ahead of us with the hope of better times to come. Here are my thoughts as a mixture of trends I am seeing plus some predictions for this year:

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2021 Will be a Boom Year for Real Estate

Dec 5, 2020

Here is a thought piece from your Real Estate Philosopher that I am confident you will “like” even if you think I am dead wrong. In brief, I will stick my neck out to say: 2021 Will Be A Boom Year for Real Estate.

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Time to Look Seriously at Retail! | Announcing our Win/Win Retail HUB

Nov 19, 2020

Retail to many is a location where the retailer takes products from a producer of the products, puts them on a shelf, marks them up 50%, and customers come in and buy them at the higher price. The retailer gets the markup (less its costs). I would call that business "Old Retail." But then there is a completely different kind of Retail, a location where the owner of a brand, or something that people need or desire, has a competitive advantage. The most obvious is an Apple Store, but there are many more, and you know it when you see it since it was packed with customers (before COVID) and will be again (after COVID). Technically this kind of business is also Retail, isn't it? But it is hardly struggling. I have coined the phrase, which you have seen in my prior writings, "Power Niche" to describe businesses that derive their competitive strength from a niche that they have ownership of. I would call this business "Power Niche Retail."

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Big V Redux – Was I Right?

Nov 9, 2020

My belief was that in a general sense, a country like ours with its entrepreneurial spirit and Democratic form of government would do what it always does when things go wrong and allow the “creative destruction” of capitalism to cause the rebirth of new businesses as quickly as other businesses died off. And that has surely happened – I loved this article, by way of example: Is It Insane to Start a Business During Coronavirus? Millions of Americans Don’t Think So.

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The Office, as We Know It, Is Dead? No, it Isn’t – Not One Bit!

Sep 5, 2020

“The office is dead,” say the headlines all over the place. Seriously? That is what I am hearing. Since clients and others keep asking me what I think about this, I will weigh in. I have a few thoughts to start with: The office is not dead The office is not dead The office is not dead

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Creating Value
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